MATCH LAB / 03

Read the matchup.
Price the uncertainty.

Compare current team strength and recent form to estimate home-win, draw, and away-win probabilities before kickoff.

Probabilities use completed historical matches and current rolling form. They do not account for injuries, lineups, transfers after the dataset refresh, or live match conditions.

VALIDATION DESIGN

No peeking
at tomorrow.

4,430training matches

Historical seasons build the model in chronological order.

375calibration matches

A separate season calibrates probability confidence.

380test matches

The newest completed season remains untouched until final scoring.

48.2%three-way accuracy

Reported honestly alongside log loss and Brier score.